Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction eBook

An chance However an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why What makes some people so good And can this talent be taught   In Superforecasting Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction drawing on decades of research and the results of The Art and PDF a massive government funded forecasting tournament The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker a retired pipe installer and a The Art and Science of PDF or former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good They’ve beaten other benchmarks competitors and prediction markets They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts wit.

superforecasting kindle science mobile prediction epub Superforecasting The download Art and book Art and Science of pdf The Art and pdf The Art and Science of pdf Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction eBookAn chance However an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why What makes some people so good And can this talent be taught   In Superforecasting Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction drawing on decades of research and the results of The Art and PDF a massive government funded forecasting tournament The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker a retired pipe installer and a The Art and Science of PDF or former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good They’ve beaten other benchmarks competitors and prediction markets They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts wit.

[Reading] ➷ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction ➭ Philip E. Tetlock – Salovehej.me A  New York Times BestsellerAn  Economist Best Book of 2015The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's  Thinking Fast and Slow—Jason Zweig  The Wall Street Journal   Ev[Reading] Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Philip E. Tetlock Salovehej.me A  New York Times BestsellerAn  Economist Best Book of 2015The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's  Thinking Fast and Slow—Jason Zweig  The Wall Street Journal   Ev A  New York Times Art and Epub BestsellerAn  Economist Best Book of The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's  Thinking Fast and Slow—Jason Zweig  The Wall Street Journal   Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future whether buying stocks crafting policy launching a new product or simply planning the week’s meals Unfortunately people tend to be terrible forecasters As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark study even Superforecasting: The MOBI : experts’ predictions are only slightly better th.

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction eBook

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction eBook .

10 thoughts on “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

  1. Yannick Serres Yannick Serres says:

    Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction eBook superforecasting kindle, science mobile, prediction epub, Superforecasting The download, Art and book, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and pdf, The Art and Science of pdf, Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction eBookDuring the first hundred pages I was sure to give the book a perfect score It totally caught my attention and made me want and The book made me feel like it had been written for me someone that don't know much about predictions and forecasts but feels like he could be good at itThen after the h


  2. David David says:

    Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction eBook superforecasting kindle, science mobile, prediction epub, Superforecasting The download, Art and book, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and pdf, The Art and Science of pdf, Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction eBookPhilip Tetlock is a professor at the University of Pennsylvania He is a co leader of the Good Judgment Project a long term forecasting study It is a fascinating project whose purpose is to improve the accuracy of forecasts You can learn about the project on theGood Judgment website In this book you can learn the basics of how to make accurate forecasts in the face of uncertainty and incomplete factsAn amazing tournament was held which pitted amateur volunteers in the Good Judgment Project with the best analysts at IARPA Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency The amateurs with the best records for accuracy are termed superforecasters They performed 30% better than the professional analysts who had access to classified information This was not a simple tournament It was held over a long period of time enough time to allow a good amount of research and thinking and discussions among team members It involved hundreds of uest


  3. Anton Anton says:

    Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction eBook superforecasting kindle, science mobile, prediction epub, Superforecasting The download, Art and book, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and pdf, The Art and Science of pdf, Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction eBook5⭐️ What a great book It will definitely appeal to the fans of Thinking Fast and Slow Predictably Irrational The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions and The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly ImprobableThought provoking and full of very perceptive observations But I particularly would like to commend authors for how well this book is written This is an example of non fiction at its best There is definitely research and background science overview but each chapter is a proper story as well Philip E Tetlock andor his co author not sure who should take the credit are superb storytellers It was not only insightful but genuinely enjoyable to read this bookI usually read several books simultaneously one or two non fiction titles and a bunch


  4. Elizabeth Theiss Elizabeth Theiss says:

    Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction eBook superforecasting kindle, science mobile, prediction epub, Superforecasting The download, Art and book, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and pdf, The Art and Science of pdf, Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction eBookWhen it comes to forecasting most pundits and professionals do little better than chimps with dartboards according to Phil


  5. Michael Michael says:

    Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction eBook superforecasting kindle, science mobile, prediction epub, Superforecasting The download, Art and book, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and pdf, The Art and Science of pdf, Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction eBookPhilip E Tetlock feels a bit too polite Sometimes it seems he is excusing wrong predictions by finding weasel words in them or interpreting them kindly instead of using the intended assertionJust say Thomas Friedman is a bad forecasterInstead of reading this book I recommend reading the books he referencesThinking Fast and Slow The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable and The Signal and the Noise Why So Many Predictions Fail But Some Don'tThis books feels like a superficial summary of the afore mentioned books and an atte


  6. Andy Andy says:

    Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction eBook superforecasting kindle, science mobile, prediction epub, Superforecasting The download, Art and book, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and pdf, The Art and Science of pdf, Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction eBookThis book features some interesting trivia about Super forecasters but when it comes to explaining evidence based practice it was Super disappointing It starts off well with a discussion of Archie Cochrane and evidence based medicine EBM but then it bizarrely ignores the core concepts of EBM In EBM you look up what works and then use that info to help people instead of killing them But when Tetlock talks about social philanthropy he implies that it's evidence based as long as y


  7. John Kaufmann John Kaufmann says:

    Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction eBook superforecasting kindle, science mobile, prediction epub, Superforecasting The download, Art and book, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and pdf, The Art and Science of pdf, Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction eBookThis book was solid though perhaps not uite as good as I hopedexpected It was interesting reading full of interesting stories and examples The author doesn't prescribe a particular method superforecasting it appears is about a toolbox or set of guidelines that must be used and adapted based on the particular circumstances As a result


  8. Pavlo Illiashenko Pavlo Illiashenko says:

    Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction eBook superforecasting kindle, science mobile, prediction epub, Superforecasting The download, Art and book, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and pdf, The Art and Science of pdf, Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction eBookHarry Truman famously said Give me a one handed economist All my economics say ''On the one hand on the other''Philip Tetlock combines three major findings from different areas of research1 People don't like experts who are context specific and could not provide us with clear simple answers regarding complex phenomena in a probabilistic world People don't like if an expert sounds not 100% confident They reason that confidence represents skills2 Experts who employ publicly acceptable role of hedgehogs ideologically narrow minded andor express ideas with 100% certain


  9. Tony Tony says:

    Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction eBook superforecasting kindle, science mobile, prediction epub, Superforecasting The download, Art and book, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and pdf, The Art and Science of pdf, Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction eBookI'm giving this a 4 even though I didn't complete it It's very well written and structured but I just decided half way through that the subject wasn't for meSome exceptional real world examples though


  10. Michal Mironov Michal Mironov says:

    Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction eBook superforecasting kindle, science mobile, prediction epub, Superforecasting The download, Art and book, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and pdf, The Art and Science of pdf, Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction eBookI usually rank my favorite books on a line between „extremely readable“ and „ very useful“ This one is probably among my Top 3 most useful books ever The other two are Kahneman's “Thinking Fast and Slow” and Taleb's “Black Swan” You don't have to agree on everything with the author but you still will get dozens of truly important facts that can fundamentally affect your life Don't be misguided by the title – you really have to read this book even if you don't have the ambition to predict stock prices or revolutions in the Arab world Whether we like it or not we ar


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